Derived multi-series indicators and spreads
Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. The most widely watched yield curve indicator — inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955 with a 6-18 month lead. Positive = normal curve, negative = inverted (recession warning). Pre-computed daily from DGS10 and DGS2.
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Spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Input to the NY Fed's recession probability model, which has historically outperformed the 10Y-2Y spread in formal studies. Deeper inversion = higher recession probability. Pre-computed daily, ready to feed directly into probability models.
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High-yield OAS minus investment-grade OAS — isolates the incremental risk premium for lower-quality credit. Widens when credit stress is concentrated in weaker issuers. Use for credit differentiation analysis and stress regime detection. Pre-computed daily from BofA index data.
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Average of Chicago Fed NFCI and St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, normalized to a common scale. Positive = tighter/more stressed than average, negative = looser/less stressed. Combines two complementary stress measures into a single composite signal. Pre-computed weekly.
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JOLTS job openings divided by BLS unemployed persons count. Above 1.0 means more open jobs than unemployed workers — historically tight labor market. Below 1.0 signals loosening. Peaked above 2.0 in 2022. Pre-computed monthly, directly comparable across cycles.
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30-year fixed mortgage rate minus 10-year Treasury yield. Measures the premium mortgage lenders charge above the risk-free benchmark. Normal range 150-200bps; elevated spread signals lender risk aversion or MBS prepayment concerns. Pre-computed weekly from MORTGAGE30US and DGS10.
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10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Represents the real return demanded for long-dated government bonds. Negative real yields historically correlate with risk-asset outperformance. Critical input for equity valuation models and cross-asset allocation. Pre-computed daily.
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Federal funds effective rate minus CPI YoY inflation. Measures whether monetary policy is restrictive or accommodative in real terms. Negative real rates = loose policy (historically supports risk assets). Positive real rates = restrictive policy (historically pressures valuations). Pre-computed daily.
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